Is there any evidence that halving events have any influence on the Bitcoin price ?
If we look at historical monthly prices, the answer seems to be yes
In the 12 months before the 2012 halving, bitcoin rose from $3.06 to $12.56 an increase of 410%.
In the 12 months after the 2012 halving, bitcoin rose from $12.56 to $946.92 an increase of 7537%.
In the 12 months before the 2016 halving, bitcoin rose from $280.04 to $607.37, an increase of 217%.
In the 12 months after the 2016 halving, bitcoin rose from $607.37 to $2734.59 an increase of 450%.
So far, so good. If we are holding bitcoin during those time periods, we are doing very well.
But what if we are holding bitcoin during the “dead” months when the halving events are nothing more than a distant memory, and the next halving event is more than a year away?
You will notice the first “dead” zone is comprised of 24 months while the second “dead” zone is only 22 months. That’s because we are just now entering the one year waiting period before the next “halving” event.
That is to say, because of the build out of bitcoin miners over the last few years, the time period between halving events is getting shorter.
In any case:
Price of bitcoin at the beginning of the 2014-2015 dead zone was $946.92, and at the end, $376, a decrease of 60%.
Price of bitcoin at the beginning of the 2017-2019 dead zone was $4950, and at the end, $8553.13, an increase of 72%.
BITCOIN IS THE NEW GOLD –
To me, the most interesting pattern is that during the “dead” zones, there were eight separate times that the price of bitcoin dropped more than 30% in one month.
During the “happy” times, (one year before and one year after halving), the price of bitcoin dropped more than 30% only once.
Coincidence? I will let the reader be the judge.
But the data is suggesting that the good times are just starting to roll.
Litecoin is also having a halving on August 5th, 2019
Following the same scenario as described above, there is a good chance that the value of Litecoin will increase after the halving in August of this year.